Joe - is there an easy way to understand the process from Country to Country or location to location - relative to the 'forward' vs. 'return'? That may also be very helpful information to validate against when we have international orders....
To the best of my knowledge there is no way to tell. I saw this scam in action, and yes it did happen to me to the tune of a few thousand dollars, I can say that any transaction with Switzerland as the destination country is subject to this. I am the first to report on this new threat and have taken extra steps such as checking via Google maps etc... The IP addresses I have been posting are attempts I have witnessed to repeat the scam and I have chosen to post them here. So far every originating IP was from Indonesia with the destination country being Switzerland although I have seen attempts at Australia being the destination country and also have been told that Ireland can be used as well. I know the country of Ireland like the back of my hand so my geography for there isn't a problem, I in fact welcome the attempts from there so I can report them.
In a nut shell here is how this scam works:
1) somebodies email is philshed most likely
2) the scammer then seeks a cart system with a vulnerability AKA in this case Paypal payments pro without a CVV verification or address match or partial address match.
3) Scammer sets up an account with an Indonesian address but Switzerland as the country because they know Switzerland will forward rather than return to sender
4) The account in every case I have seen had a Yahoo email address (yes I have reported those addresses as well to Yahoo)
5) Phone number again is invalid
6) Item is shipped and you are out the money at this point
7) Item is then forwarded to the correct country and the USPS is notified to pay forwarding fees (yes the USPS is also out the shipping costs)
8) The scam is repeated several times before you have a clue as to this even happened because this was the holiday shopping season and they missed the charge because they have been charging many items or the owner of the CC hasn't received the charge on the bill yet
9) Last but not least anywhere from 1 - 6 months later you start getting hit with chargebacks.
There is more to it than that but that is a brief enough summary.
Joe - The Bar Keep